How Would a US–Iran War Shake the Global Economy? Risks, Opportunities, and a Strategic Roadmap for Turkey and the UK
Geopolitical tensions are among the harshest tests for the global economy. Crises centred on energy-producing countries create not only regional but also global consequences. A large-scale military conflict between the United States and Iran would represent exactly this kind of risk. The Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Middle East’s energy corridors lie at the heart of global oil and natural gas supply. For this reason, a war in this region would affect not only Iran and the US, but also a broad economic area stretching from Europe to Asia.
In this scenario, the position of two countries stands out in particular: Turkey and the United Kingdom. Because of their geographical locations, economic structures, and financial systems, these two countries would face different risks. However, with the right strategies, it is possible for them to come through this crisis with minimal damage.
Energy Shock: The First Wave of the Crisis
The fastest and harshest impact of a US–Iran war would be seen in energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz is an energy artery through which roughly 20% of global oil trade passes. Even Iran’s threat to close this strait could trigger sudden spikes in oil prices.
When we examine the historical impact of geopolitical crises on energy prices, a very clear picture emerges.
During the 1973 oil crisis, the 1990 Gulf War, and the 2003 Iraq intervention, oil prices rose by between 50% and 150% in a short period of time. In a similar scenario, it would not be surprising for Brent crude to climb rapidly into the $120–$150 range.
This would mean serious costs for energy-importing countries. Turkey falls into this category, while the UK has a more complex energy balance.
Turkey: Energy Dependence Is the Biggest Risk
One of the fragile points of the Turkish economy is energy imports. Turkey meets around 70% of its annual energy needs through imports. A sharp rise in oil prices could quickly widen Turkey’s current account deficit.
However, Turkey also has significant advantages.
First, Turkey is an energy transit country. Pipelines such as TANAP and TAP, which carry Azerbaijani gas to Europe, increase Turkey’s importance in energy geopolitics.
Second, Turkey has made major natural gas discoveries in the Black Sea in recent years. The gradual rise in production from the Sakarya Gas Field is a strategic development that could reduce energy dependence.
Third, Turkey’s geographical position expands its diplomatic room for manoeuvre. Ankara has previously been able to play a mediating role, as it did during the Russia–Ukraine war.
For this reason, Turkey’s most effective strategy can be grouped under three headings:
- 1. Diversifying energy sources
The impact of an oil shock could be reduced by increasing LNG agreements, Azerbaijani gas supplies, and Black Sea production.
- 2. Gold and reserve management
In geopolitical crises, central banks’ gold reserves are critically important. The gold reserves Turkey has increased in recent years could serve as an important buffer in terms of financial security.
- 3. A balanced diplomatic policy
Turkey’s simultaneous NATO membership and ability to maintain dialogue with regional countries is a major advantage. If this balance is preserved, Turkey may even generate economic opportunities from the crisis.
The UK: Financial System Risk
The UK would be affected by a US–Iran war in a different way from Turkey.
The UK is home to London’s financial markets, one of the most important centres of the global financial system. For this reason, the financial turbulence caused by geopolitical crises could directly affect London markets.
In times of war, investors usually move out of risky assets and turn to safe havens. This can create selling pressure in global stock markets. For the UK, the risks are concentrated in three areas:
- 1. Sharp volatility in financial markets
- 2. Rising energy prices
- 3. A slowdown in global trade
However, the UK’s strengths are also quite clear.
London is one of the world’s largest centres for gold trading. At the same time, a significant portion of global hedge funds and investment banks operate there.
This gives the UK the potential to create financial opportunities during periods of crisis.
Trade Corridors and the New Geopolitical Balance
A US–Iran war could affect not only energy markets but also trade routes. A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could reshape the flow of energy and trade between Asia and Europe.
At this point, Turkey’s strategic importance would grow even further.
The trade route known as the Middle Corridor — linking Turkey, the Caucasus, and Central Asia — could gain importance as an alternative logistics route.
The UK, meanwhile, could play a critical role in financing global trade through its finance and insurance sectors.
The Most Rational Strategy: Turning Crisis into Opportunity
When we look at the history of geopolitical crises, one fact becomes very clear: crises are not only periods of risk, but also periods of restructuring.
A US–Iran war would likely create new balances in the global energy, finance, and trade system.
In this process, the most rational strategy for Turkey and the UK should rest on three basic principles:
- Strengthening energy security
- Increasing resilience in the financial system
- Expanding diplomatic room for manoeuvre
If these steps are taken, both countries may not only protect themselves from the crisis, but also capture new economic opportunities.
In conclusion, a possible war between the US and Iran would be a serious stress test for the global economy. Rising energy prices, volatility in financial markets, and a slowdown in global trade would be unavoidable.
However, every crisis also creates new opportunities.
Turkey could gain strategic importance in this process thanks to its role as an energy corridor and its diplomatic capacity. The UK, meanwhile, could reinforce its role as a financial centre during the crisis thanks to its financial strength and the global influence of London markets.
History shows us this: in geopolitical storms, the countries that remain standing are not those with the greatest military power, but those with the greatest economic and strategic flexibility.
In the coming period, the success of Turkey and the UK will depend precisely on how well they manage that flexibility.
